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Economy

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Elon Musk

97%chance024h

  • Vol$2.0M
  • 24h$140
  • Liquidity$194k
  • Open interest$28k
  • Closesin 62d
  • Elon Musk
  • Bernard Arnault
  • Warren Buffett
  • Mark Zuckerberg
Elon Musk chance over 30 days: from 97% to 97%.

In short

Elon Musk leads at 97%, ahead of Bernard Arnault (1%) and Warren Buffett (0.9%), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. 3 outcomes are priced and $2.0M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 3 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Elon Musk, the favourite in "Richest person on December 31, 2026", trades at 97% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $2.0M in total, $140 in 24 hours; open interest $28k; liquidity $194k.
  • Listed to close on 3 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Elon Musk under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/richest-person-on-december-31-2026”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Elon Musk97%01.03-3822
Bernard Arnault1%091+8991
Warren Buffett0.9%n/a118+11665

8 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

What would move this market

  • Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
  • Elon Musk leads Bernard Arnault by 96 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Resolution source:
www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
Closes:
3 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 97% means about 97¢ a share and roughly 1.03x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Richest person on December 31, 2026"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC, Elon Musk at 97%, then Bernard Arnault at 1% and Warren Buffett at 0.9%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Elon Musk: unchanged in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 3 January 2027 (3 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 62 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.0M in total and $140 in the last 24 hours, with about $28k in open positions (open interest) and $194k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Richest person on December 31, 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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