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Elections

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

89%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$1.8M
  • 24h$15k
  • Liquidity$931k
  • Open interest$140k
  • Closesin 2d
  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
  • Bernadette Wilson
  • Click Bishop
  • David Bronson
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins chance over 30 days: from 78% to 89%.

In short

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads at 89%, ahead of Bernadette Wilson (11%) and Click Bishop (0.1%), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is up 10 pts over 30 days. 2 outcomes are priced and $1.8M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 4 November 2026.
Key numbers
  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the favourite in "Alaska Governor Election Winner", trades at 89% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: up 10 pts.
  • Traded: $1.8M in total, $15k in 24 hours; open interest $140k; liquidity $931k.
  • Listed to close on 4 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/alaska-governor-election-winner”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins89%up 11.13-777
Bernadette Wilson11%n/a9.5+852

20 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins89%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins up 9 pts (79% to 88%)

  2. · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins up 4 pts (74% to 79%)

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Bernadette Wilson by 78 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Closes:
4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 89% means about 89¢ a share and roughly 1.13x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Alaska Governor Election Winner"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 89%, then Bernadette Wilson at 11% and Click Bishop at 0.1%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and up 10 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 2 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.8M in total and $15k in the last 24 hours, with about $140k in open positions (open interest) and $931k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:17 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Alaska Governor Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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