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Elections · Argentina
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
44%chancen/a
- Vol$1.2M
- 24h$10k
- Liquidity$1.2M
- Open interest$148k
- Closesin 358d
- Javier Milei
- Axel Kicillof
- Sergio Massa
- Patricia Bullrich
In short
- Javier Milei, the favourite in "Argentina Presidential Election Winner", trades at 44% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 09:46 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 3 pts; 30 days: down 10 pts.
- Traded: $1.2M in total, $10k in 24 hours; open interest $148k; liquidity $1.2M.
- Listed to close on 25 October 2027; bid-ask spread on Javier Milei 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 44% | n/a | 2.3 | +130 | ||
| Axel Kicillof | 29% | n/a | 3.5 | +251 | ||
| Sergio Massa | 15% | n/a | 6.6 | +564 | ||
| Patricia Bullrich | 4% | 0 | 24 | +2310 | ||
| Myriam Bregman | 3% | up 2 | 36 | +3536 | ||
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 2% | 0 | 44 | +4344 | ||
| Dante Gebel | 0.9% | n/a | 118 | +11665 | ||
| Daniel Hadad | 0.6% | n/a | 167 | +16567 | ||
| Karina Milei | 0.5% | n/a | 200 | +19900 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Myriam Bregman3%
Timeline of big moves
· Javier Milei down 9 pts (56% to 47%)
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- Javier Milei leads Axel Kicillof by 15 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
- Resolution source:
- www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php
- Closes:
- 25 Oct 2027, 03:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 44% means about 44¢ a share and roughly 2.3x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Argentina Presidential Election Winner"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 09:46 UTC, Javier Milei at 44%, then Axel Kicillof at 29% and Sergio Massa at 15%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Javier Milei: unchanged in 24 hours, down 3 pts in 7 days and down 10 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:46 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 25 October 2027 (25 Oct 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 358 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.2M in total and $10k in the last 24 hours, with about $148k in open positions (open interest) and $1.2M of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 09:46 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Argentina Presidential Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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