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Elections

Florida Governor Election Winner

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Byron Donalds (R)

61%chancedown 4 pts24h

  • Vol$1.4M
  • 24h$246k
  • Liquidity$640k
  • Open interest$681k
  • Closesin 2d
  • Byron Donalds (R)
  • David Jolly (D)
Byron Donalds (R) chance over 30 days: from 78% to 60%.

In short

Byron Donalds (R) leads at 61%, ahead of David Jolly (D) (40%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 05:41 UTC. Byron Donalds (R) is down 18 pts over 30 days. 2 outcomes are priced and $1.4M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 4 November 2026.
Key numbers
  • Byron Donalds (R), the favourite in "Florida Governor Election Winner", trades at 61% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 05:41 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 4 pts; 7 days: down 22 pts; 30 days: down 18 pts.
  • Traded: $1.4M in total, $246k in 24 hours; open interest $681k; liquidity $640k.
  • Listed to close on 4 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Byron Donalds (R) 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/florida-governor-winner-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 05:41 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Byron Donalds (R)61%down 41.65-153
David Jolly (D)40%up 52.5+153

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • David Jolly (D)40%

    up 5 pts in 24h

  • Byron Donalds (R)61%

    down 4 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Byron Donalds (R) moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Byron Donalds (R) down 5 pts (65% to 60%)

  2. · Byron Donalds (R) down 7 pts (70% to 63%)

  3. · Byron Donalds (R) down 5 pts (80% to 75%)

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Byron Donalds (R) leads David Jolly (D) by 21 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Closes:
4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 61% means about 61¢ a share and roughly 1.65x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Florida Governor Election Winner"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 05:41 UTC, Byron Donalds (R) at 61%, then David Jolly (D) at 40%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Byron Donalds (R): down 4 pts in 24 hours, down 22 pts in 7 days and down 18 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 05:41 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 2 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.4M in total and $246k in the last 24 hours, with about $681k in open positions (open interest) and $640k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 05:41 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Florida Governor Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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