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Elections
Nevada Governor Election Winner
76%chancedown 2 pts
- Vol$1.4M
- 24h$182k
- Liquidity$711k
- Open interest$664k
- Closesin 1d
- Aaron Ford (D)
- Joe Lombardo (R)
In short
- Aaron Ford (D), the favourite in "Nevada Governor Election Winner", trades at 76% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 3 pts; 7 days: up 7 pts; 30 days: up 24 pts.
- Traded: $1.4M in total, $182k in 24 hours; open interest $664k; liquidity $711k.
- Listed to close on 4 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Aaron Ford (D) 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ford (D) | 76% | down 2 | 1.32 | -308 | ||
| Joe Lombardo (R) | 25% | up 3 | 4.1 | +308 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Joe Lombardo (R)25%
Aaron Ford (D)76%
Timeline of big moves
· Aaron Ford (D) up 4 pts (75% to 79%)
· Aaron Ford (D) down 6 pts (81% to 75%)
· Aaron Ford (D) up 10 pts (69% to 79%)
· Aaron Ford (D) up 8 pts (59% to 66%)
· Aaron Ford (D) up 5 pts (53% to 59%)
· Aaron Ford (D) up 6 pts (53% to 59%)
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- Aaron Ford (D) leads Joe Lombardo (R) by 51 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
- Closes:
- 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 76% means about 76¢ a share and roughly 1.32x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Nevada Governor Election Winner"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC, Aaron Ford (D) at 76%, then Joe Lombardo (R) at 25%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Aaron Ford (D): down 3 pts in 24 hours, up 7 pts in 7 days and up 24 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 1 day) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.4M in total and $182k in the last 24 hours, with about $664k in open positions (open interest) and $711k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:47 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Nevada Governor Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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