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Elections · France
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
89%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$515k
- 24h$4k
- Liquidity$560k
- Open interest$226k
- Closesin 167d
- Marine Le Pen
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- Édouard Philippe
- David Lisnard
In short
- Marine Le Pen, the favourite in "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round", trades at 89% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 23:41 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: down 2 pts.
- Traded: $515k in total, $4k in 24 hours; open interest $226k; liquidity $560k.
- Listed to close on 19 April 2027; bid-ask spread on Marine Le Pen 2¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 89% | down 1 | 1.12 | -809 | ||
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 42% | down 1 | 2.4 | +141 | ||
| Édouard Philippe | 25% | down 3 | 4.0 | +300 | ||
| David Lisnard | 19% | down 1 | 5.3 | +431 | ||
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 9% | 0 | 11 | +1049 | ||
| Jordan Bardella | 8% | n/a | 13 | +1233 | ||
| Gabriel Attal | 7% | 0 | 15 | +1371 | ||
| François Hollande | 6% | up 1 | 16 | +1475 | ||
| Xavier Bertrand | 6% | 0 | 18 | +1654 | ||
| Dominique de Villepin | 6% | 0 | 18 | +1718 | ||
| Sébastien Lecornu | 5% | n/a | 19 | +1752 | ||
| Bruno Retailleau | 5% | 0 | 20 | +1861 | ||
| Laurent Wauquiez | 5% | down 1 | 20 | +1920 | ||
| Éric Zemmour | 4% | n/a | 22 | +2147 | ||
| Manuel Bompard | 4% | n/a | 24 | +2339 | ||
| François Ruffin | 4% | n/a | 25 | +2369 | ||
| Juan Branco | 4% | 0 | 25 | +2400 | ||
| Clémence Guetté | 4% | 0 | 27 | +2640 | ||
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 4% | n/a | 28 | +2678 | ||
| Élisabeth Borne | 4% | 0 | 29 | +2757 | ||
| Marine Tondelier | 3% | down 1 | 29 | +2841 | ||
| Fabien Roussel | 3% | n/a | 30 | +2930 | ||
| Sarah Knafo | 3% | 0 | 30 | +2930 | ||
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 3% | n/a | 31 | +3025 | ||
| François Bayrou | 3% | n/a | 33 | +3233 | ||
| Ségolène Royal | 3% | n/a | 36 | +3471 | ||
| Clémentine Autain | 3% | 0 | 36 | +3471 | ||
| Gérald Darmanin | 3% | n/a | 38 | +3746 | ||
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2% | n/a | 43 | +4155 | ||
| François Asselineau | 2% | 0 | 43 | +4248 | ||
| Michel Barnier | 2% | n/a | 43 | +4248 | ||
| Olivier Faure | 2% | down 1 | 45 | +4445 | ||
| Jean Castex | 2% | n/a | 50 | +4900 | ||
| Carole Delga | 2% | 0 | 57 | +5614 | ||
| Valérie Pécresse | 1% | n/a | 80 | +7900 | ||
| Mathilde Panot | 1% | 0 | 80 | +7900 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Édouard Philippe25%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon42%
Marine Tondelier3%
Timeline of big moves
· Marine Le Pen down 4 pts (90% to 86%)
· Marine Le Pen up 5 pts (82% to 87%)
· Marine Le Pen down 4 pts (86% to 82%)
· Marine Le Pen down 11 pts (90% to 79%)
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- Marine Le Pen leads Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 48 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.interieur.gouv.fr/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
- Resolution source:
- www.interieur.gouv.fr/
- Closes:
- 19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 89% means about 89¢ a share and roughly 1.12x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 23:41 UTC, Marine Le Pen at 89%, then Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 42% and Édouard Philippe at 25%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Marine Le Pen: down 1 pt in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:41 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 19 April 2027 (19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 167 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.interieur.gouv.fr/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$515k in total and $4k in the last 24 hours, with about $226k in open positions (open interest) and $560k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:41 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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