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Elections

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

5%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$1.9M
  • 24h$530
  • Liquidity$48k
  • Open interest$202k
  • Closesin 62d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 6% to 5%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 5% chance (unchanged in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC. Over 30 days it is down 1 pt. $1.9M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 4 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends" trades at 5% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 6 pts; 30 days: down 1 pt.
  • Traded: $1.9M in total, $530 in 24 hours; open interest $202k; liquidity $48k.
  • Listed to close on 4 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes5%n/a22+2122
No96%n/a1.05-2122

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Yes moved 5 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Yes down 5 pts (10% to 5%)

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Time. It closes on 4 January 2027 (about 62 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 5% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
  • Thin book: about $48k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Closes:
4 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 5% means about 5¢ a share and roughly 22x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 5%, which is decimal odds of 22 or American +2122. A Yes share costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, down 6 pts in 7 days and down 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 4 January 2027 (4 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 62 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$1.9M in total and $530 in the last 24 hours, with about $202k in open positions (open interest) and $48k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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